TrackGuard — Decision Intelligence for Seed-Stage Founders

An operational decision intelligence system architected with deterministic agents, real-time health monitoring, and multi-domain alerting. Not a chatbot — a trusted multi-agent council that observes, analyzes, decides, and learns.

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The Architecture: A Digital Guardian Council

Each agent is a specialized decision-maker with bounded authority, durable memory, and explicit trust governance.

                     ┌─────────────────────────┐
                     │  FOUNDER (Feedback Loop) │
                     │  Final authority for     │
                     │  irreversible decisions  │
                     └──────┬─────────────────┘
                            │
               ┌────────────┼────────────┐
               │            │            │
      ┌────────▼──┐  ┌─────▼──────┐  ┌──▼──────────┐
      │ ALERT GATE│  │  COUNCIL   │  │ CONFLICT    │
      │ 7-stage   │  │  AlertCouncil│  │ RESOLVER   │
      │ quality   │  │  synthesis │  │ Agent       │
      │ + business│  │  + priority│  │ Arbiter     │
      │ guardrails│  │  + recommend│  │             │
      └───────────┘  └─────┬──────┘  └─────────────┘
                           │
          ┌────────────────┼────────────────┐
          │                │                │
   ┌──────▼─────┐  ┌──────▼──────┐  ┌──────▼──────┐
   │  FINANCE   │  │  BI ANALYST│  │  OPS WATCH  │
   │  Guardian  │  │  (leading  │  │  (operational│
   │  + Finance │  │  indicators)│  │  heartbeat) │
   │  Rules Engine│  │            │  │            │
   └──────┬─────┘  └──────┬──────┘  └──────┬──────┘
          │                │                │
          └────────────────┼────────────────┘
                           │
               ┌───────────▼───────────┐
               │   BUSINESS PIPELINE   │
               │  Finance Rules →      │
               │  Guardrails → HITL →  │
               │  MissionState → Slack │
               └───────────┬───────────┘
                           │
               ┌───────────▼───────────┐
               │   PREDICTIVE GUARDIAN │
               │  Trend extrapolation  │
               │  Runway projection    │
               │  Churn acceleration   │
               │  Threshold alerts     │
               └───────────┬───────────┘
                           │
               ┌───────────▼───────────┐
               │   ANOMALY DETECTOR    │
               │  Cross-domain anomaly │
               │  inconsistency check  │
               │  — wandering scout    │
               └──────────────────────┘
                           │
               ┌───────────▼───────────┐
               │   MISSION STATE +     │
               │   ALERT DISPATCH      │
               │  Treasury (Kosha) +   │
               │  Enforcement (Danda)  │
               └──────────────────────┘
                           │
               ┌───────────▼───────────┐
               │   KNOWLEDGE GRAPH     │
               │  Graphiti temporal    │
               │  institutional memory │
               │  — connection (Mitra) │
               └──────────────────────┘

New in V4: MBA Integration Layer. Three new deterministic layers sit between the guardians and the founder:

• Finance Rules — 17 detection functions + 7 MBA primitives (WACC, NPV, IRR, burn multiple, etc.)
• Guardrails Engine — 7-stage policy evaluation (investor-facing, authority, reversibility, risk, privacy, approval tier, blocking)
• Predictive Guardian — trend forecasting, runway depletion projection, churn acceleration detection

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MBA Integration Layer

Finance Rules (business/finance_rules.py)

17 detection functions extracted from guardian watchlist lambdas + 7 MBA finance primitives. Pure Python, zero LLM calls.

Detections: silent churn death, burn multiple creep, customer concentration risk, runway compression, failed payment clusters, payroll/revenue breach, leaky bucket activation, power user MRR masking, feature adoption drop, cohort retention degradation, NRR < 100%, trial activation wall, error segment correlation, support outpacing growth, cross-channel bug convergence, deploy frequency collapse, infra unit economics divergence.

MBA Primitives: compute_burn_multiple, compute_runway_days, compute_effective_runway_days, compute_npv, compute_irr, compute_wacc, compute_working_capital_pressure.

Business Decision Envelope (business/envelope.py)

Canonical typed contract composing 5 existing schemas (EventEnvelope, AlertDecision, GuardianMessage, DecisionResult, AlertEvidenceChain) with FinancialSnapshot + GuardrailResult. Composition, not inheritance — zero source file modifications.

Guardrails Engine (business/guardrails.py)

7-stage deterministic policy evaluation — no LLM calls:

1. Investor-facing — flag decisions visible to investors
2. Authority — map severity to approval tier (auto/review/blocking)
3. Reversibility — detect irreversible decisions (payouts, contracts, public comms)
4. Risk classification — financial / legal / reputational / operational
5. Privacy — PII detection via regex
6. Approval tier final — deterministic tier assignment
7. Blocking override — block when multiple critical conditions met

Alert Quality Gate — Extended (services/alert_gate.py)

Expanded from 4 to 7 stages: schema → trust → dedup → tone → authority → risk → privacy.

Trust Battery — Extended (services/trust_battery.py)

4 new guardrail fields added to AgentTrustProfile: authority_limit, max_auto_approve_severity, investor_update_requires_approval, irreversible_decision_threshold.

Business Pipeline (orchestration/run_business_pipeline.py)

Chains 7 stages: finance rules → envelope → guardrails → HITL routing → MissionState update → events → Slack alert. Wrapped as Temporal activities.

Predictive Guardian (predictive/engine.py)

10 pure forecasting functions using standard library only (math, statistics):

• Linear trend — OLS regression for any metric
• Predict next — single/multi-step forecast via trend extrapolation
• Days to threshold — when will a metric breach a critical value
• Moving average — sliding window smoother
• Confidence intervals — normal approximation bounds
• Volatility — coefficient of variation
• Runway depletion — trend-adjusted cash runway projection
• Churn acceleration — detects if churn rate is accelerating
• Forecast summary — complete metric forecast with trend, CI, volatility

Startup Guardian (SG) — Deterministic Founder Council

Synchronous snapshot engine that queries ERPNext, HubSpot, and QuickBooks → assembles MissionStateV2 (Support, Execution, Team, Finance, Revenue) → runs 8 watchlists + 5 cross-domain correlations → computes overall health.

Connectors:

• ERPNext — src/integrations/erpnext_client.py (pure-stdlib Frappe REST client) + erpnext.py (mock/real mode, 4 snapshot sections)
• HubSpot — src/integrations/hubspot.py (mock mode + SDK fallback)
• QuickBooks — src/integrations/quickbooks.py (mock mode + httpx real, float-to-cents, DSO calculation)

Assembly: 5 domain assemblers in src/guardian/assemblers/ transform flat snapshot dicts → Pydantic domain states + computed health enums.

Detection: 8 watchlist rules + 5 cross-domain correlations → run_startup_detector(). All deterministic, zero LLM calls.

Orchestration: src/orchestration/run_startup_guardian.py runs 3 connectors via asyncio.to_thread, assembles 5 domain states, computes overall_health = worst(health).

Testing: 54 unit tests + 2 E2E tests against Mockoon containers (docker-compose.startup-guardian.yml). Mockoon fixtures with query-param routing for ERPNext doctypes. All monetary values in integer cents.

HTMX Dashboards (Go side)

3 new admin panels in apps/core/internal/web/:

• Decision Queue — pending business decisions with approve/reject buttons (auto-refresh 10s)
• Guardrail Status — 2x2 grid of current guardrail states (auto-refresh 15s)
• Finance Risk — burn multiple, runway, working capital, WACC with color-coded risk (auto-refresh 15s)

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Core Components

Trust Battery

Every agent has a dynamic trust profile with score (0.0–1.0), route priority, degraded mode, and full event audit history. Degraded agents (trust < 0.4) are hard-blocked at the relevance gate. Extended in V4 with guardrail authority limits and auto-approve thresholds.

Session Layer

The MissionState is the single source of ground truth — shared context that every guardian reads and writes. Extended with 12 finance + guardrail fields in V4.

Joint Alert Council

When 2+ guardians fire in the same session, the council synthesizes them into one alert with unified root cause, cross-domain severity, and a single recommended action. Prevents alert fatigue.

Alert Quality Gate

Every alert passes through 7 stages before reaching the founder:

1. Schema validation — required fields, valid types
2. Trust check — agent not degraded
3. Dedup check — same alert not sent in last 60 minutes
4. Tone filter — basic text quality
5. Authority check — agent authorized for this severity level
6. Risk assessment — financial risk classification
7. Privacy check — PII detection

Anomaly Detector

Roams across all MissionState fields looking for inconsistencies: burn alerts without operational symptoms, revenue growth with cash burn, short runways with misplaced founder focus.

Conflict Resolver

Resolves contradictions between guardians — severity mismatches (critical vs. info) and signal contradictions. Highest severity wins; majority override available.

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What TrackGuard Answers

Every alert or recommendation answers four questions:

Question	How
What happened?	Guardian detects metric deviation
Why did it happen?	Narrative layer explains root cause
What if nothing changes?	Predictive Guardian — runway projection, churn probability, threshold crossing
What should be done?	Concrete recommended action with deadline

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One-Week Incident Lifecycle

T+0   → Raw data arrives (webhook / sync)
T+3m  → Guardian cycle fires (detect → reason → decide)
T+5m  → Finance Rules compute 17 detections + 7 MBA primitives
T+6m  → Guardrails Engine evaluates 7-stage policy
T+7m  → Predictive Guardian forecasts trend, runway, churn
T+8m  → BusinessDecisionEnvelope assembled
T+9m  → HITL routes (auto / review / approve / blocked)
T+10m → MissionState updated with finance + guardrail fields
T+11m → HTMX dashboard refreshes (Decision Queue, Guardrail Status, Finance Risk)
T+12m → Founder receives alert on Slack with recommendation
T+15m → Founder acknowledges / disputes via Slack button
T+20m → Trust score updated, event logged to Graphiti
T+48h → Follow-up check: was action taken? Outcome measured?

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Tech Stack

Layer	Technology
LLM	OpenRouter (nemotron-3-super-120b via API), Gemini fallback
Embeddings	OpenRouter (llama-nemotron-embed-vl-1b, 2048-dim)
Semantic Memory	Graphiti + Neo4j 5.26
Vector Store	Qdrant (episodic + compressed)
Relational DB	PostgreSQL (MissionState, trust events, sessions)
Cache	Redis (working memory, session TTL)
Tracing	Langfuse v4 (@observe)
Workflow	Temporal (activity orchestration)
Business Logic	Pure Python — standard library only (no numpy, no LLM)
Dashboard	Go 1.24 + Fiber + HTMX
Language	Python 3.13, Go 1.24
Config	Env-only via pydantic-settings — zero hardcoded secrets

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Test Coverage (319+ Passing)

Suite	Tests	Status
Trust Battery	28	✅
Session Layer	35	✅
Co-founder Agent	20	✅
Correlation + Avoidance	14	✅
Guardian Watchlist	69	✅
Finance Guardian	25	✅
Memory Spine (Graphiti)	26	✅
HITL	11	✅
Finance Rules	10	✅
Guardrails Engine	22	✅
Business Pipeline	14	✅
Predictive Guardian (engine)	33	✅
Predictive Guardian (activity)	10	✅
Go HTMX Handlers	13	✅
Startup Guardian Connectors	22	✅
Startup Guardian Assemblers	13	✅
Startup Guardian Watchlists	4	✅
Startup Guardian Correlations	6	✅
Startup Guardian Detector	3	✅
Startup Guardian Orchestrator	5	✅
Startup Guardian E2E	2	✅
All Others	100+	✅

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Project Structure

apps/
  core/                    # Go Modular Monolith
    cmd/                   # Entrypoints (server, worker, consumer)
    internal/
      web/                 # HTTP handlers + HTMX templates
        templates/         # 14 HTML templates (dashboard, panels)
        business_handler.go # Decision Queue, Guardrail Status, Finance Risk
      agents/              # Go agent definitions
      workflow/            # Temporal workflows & activities
      api/                 # Auth, webhook handlers
    migrations/            # SQL migrations
  ai/                      # Python AI Worker
    src/
      agents/              # Guardian agents (finance, bi, ops, qa, investor)
      business/            # MBA integration (NEW V4)
        finance_rules.py   # 17 detections + 7 MBA primitives
        guardrails.py      # 7-stage policy engine
        envelope.py        # BusinessDecisionEnvelope
      predictive/          # Forecasting engine (NEW V4)
        engine.py          # 10 pure forecasting functions
        schemas.py         # 6 Pydantic models
      activities/          # Temporal activities
        run_finance_rules.py
        run_guardrails.py
        run_predictive_guardian.py
      orchestration/       # Pipeline orchestrators
        run_business_pipeline.py
        run_startup_guardian.py       # Startup Guardian orchestrator
        run_startup_guardian_cli.py   # CLI entrypoint
      services/            # Trust battery, alert gate, decision engine
      session/             # MissionState, relevance gate
      guardian/            # Watchlist, detector
        assemblers/         # Startup Guardian domain state assemblers
        startup_watchlists.py
        startup_correlations.py
        startup_detector.py
      integrations/        # Stripe, Plaid, Slack, ERPNext, HubSpot, QuickBooks
      states/              # MissionStateV2 domain state schemas
      schemas/             # Pydantic models
      memory/              # Graphiti, Qdrant, spine
      events/              # Redis Streams event bus
    tests/unit/            # 319+ tests
    infrastructure/        # SQL migrations

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Quick Start

# Start infrastructure
docker start trackguard-postgres trackguard-neo4j trackguard-qdrant trackguard-redis

# Run Python tests
cd apps/ai && uv run pytest tests/unit/ -q

# Run Go tests
cd apps/core && go test ./internal/web/... -v

# Run worker
cd apps/ai && uv run python -m src.worker

# Run Startup Guardian with Mockoon containers
docker compose -f docker-compose.startup-guardian.yml up -d mock-erpnext mock-hubspot mock-quickbooks

# Run Startup Guardian E2E tests
ERPNEXT_URL=http://localhost:8099 ERPNEXT_USER=Administrator ERPNEXT_PASSWORD=admin \
  cd apps/ai && uv run pytest tests/integration/test_startup_guardian_e2e.py -v

# Run Startup Guardian CLI (mock mode, no containers needed)
cd apps/ai && uv run python -m src.orchestration.run_startup_guardian_cli my-tenant

# Run server
cd apps/core && go run cmd/server/main.go

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Development Principles

1. Decision latency — every feature must shorten the time between signal and action
2. Exception quality — high trust beats high volume; reduce false positives
3. Founder cognition — fewer, sharper, more actionable messages
4. Trust gradually — copilot → workflow assistant → semi-autonomous → autonomous
5. No hardcoded secrets — env-only configuration, centralized in config/database.py
6. Composition over inheritance — new packages import and nest existing schemas, never modify them
7. Deterministic core — finance, guardrails, and forecasting are pure Python with zero LLM calls