feat: impute below-threshold student loan borrowers#282
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feat: impute below-threshold student loan borrowers#282nwoodruff-co wants to merge 8 commits intomainfrom
nwoodruff-co wants to merge 8 commits intomainfrom
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The FRS only captures borrowers making PAYE repayments (above threshold). SLC data shows ~55% of Plan 2 holders earn below threshold. This adds probabilistic imputation of below-threshold borrowers for Plan 2 and Plan 5 based on SLC "liable to repay" counts. Changes: - Add slc/plan_*_borrowers_liable targets alongside existing above_threshold - Probabilistically assign plans to tertiary-educated people without repayments, constrained by age band and cohort - Add compute_student_loan_plan_liable() for calibration Closes #281
The strict cohort constraint (ages 21-31) missed many Plan 2 borrowers who started university late or did postgrad studies. This change: 1. Expands Plan 2 age mask from 21+ to 21-45 2. Uses age mask (not cohort) for Plan 2 below-threshold assignment 3. Assigns repayers to Plan 2 if age 21-45 and not Plan 1 cohort The below-threshold imputation now covers the full 4.95M target. The remaining gap (FRS shows 1.4M repayers vs SLC's 4M) is a data collection issue that calibration targets will help address.
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Summary
compute_student_loan_plan_liable()for calibration against total borrower countsContext
The FRS only captures borrowers making PAYE repayments (earning above threshold). SLC data shows ~55% of Plan 2 holders earn below the repayment threshold. For Plan 5 (started 2023+), almost no borrowers are captured in FRS because graduates are too young to be above threshold.
This imputation fills the gap by assigning plans to tertiary-educated people in England based on:
Test plan
Closes #281