feat: warn delegators when an orchestrator's reward cut is rising sharply

[rickstaa]

Summary

• Adds useOrchestratorRewardCutSpike — pure heuristic plus React hook that flags an orchestrator when their reward cut had any ≥50pp upward swing within any rolling 7-day window in the last 180 days.
• Augments the existing cutChangeNotice in the delegation widget so it renders as a yellow warning with dynamic copy (X ago, A% → B%) when the heuristic fires. Falls back to the existing neutral info banner otherwise.
• Shares the useTranscoderUpdateEventsQuery Apollo cache with useOrchestratorCutHistory, so the warning detection adds zero extra network requests.

Closes #681.

Visual

Test plan

• pnpm typecheck passes.
• Self-delegation: no banner.
• showApproveFlow and final-delegate branches both render the notice in the same position.

Manual verification (14 orchestrators)

Verified on the preview deployment for this PR.

Correctly flagged (9):

• 0xea6eb2033de0fbece9445fae407c596f3ffd81ae — sharp reward cut increase, canonical case from issue feat: warn delegators when an orchestrator's reward cut is rising sharply #681
• 0x4a1c83b689816e40b695e2f2ce8fc21229076e74 — recurring reward cut spiking behavior
• 0x08f76e106a2dd4f6385efc8ea6c69a2816082461
• 0x75fbf65a3dfe93545c9768f163e59a02daf08d36
• 0x5d98f8d269c94b746a5c3c2946634dcfc75e5e60
• 0x51d191950353bdf1d6361e9264a49bf93f6abd4a
• 0x5be44e23041e93cdf9bcd5a0968524e104e38ae1
• 0x13364c017b282fb033107b3c0ccbf762332aceba
• 0x6e07be22f953f716ac2e17bae1a4de3baa3a64b4 — most recent spike (0% → 100% on 2025-10-27) is ~201 days ago, just past the 180-day cutoff. Orchestrator is currently still at 100% reward cut, but the spike event itself aged out of our window. Known limitation of the chosen 180-day window.

Correctly not flagged (3):

• 0xbc144f1a34f5b858900413d35bfb7cb6b3b0d65b
• 0x0d509d8b46b072f8fc330942b2e3cc0ac34d6d8d
• 0xd93e0a15511935889aec76f79d54dff0e27af82e

Edge cases (1):

• 0xb5164d6b780786338c52f4787abba0e4a371af4d — appears to be a deliberate reward-cut increase rather than bait-and-switch. Filtering it out would require significantly more logic; accepting as a known false positive within the heuristic's coarse-grained design.

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Project	Deployment	Actions	Updated (UTC)
explorer-arbitrum-one	Ready	Preview, Comment	May 27, 2026 6:34pm

[Copilot]

Pull request overview

Adds a delegator-facing warning when an orchestrator’s reward cut has recently increased sharply (≥50 percentage points within any rolling 7-day window over the last 180 days), surfacing this risk directly in the delegation flow.

Changes:

• Introduces useOrchestratorRewardCutSpike plus a pure helper (findRecentRewardCutSpike) to detect recent reward-cut spikes from TranscoderUpdateEvent history.
• Updates the Delegation widget notice to render a yellow warning with relative timing and from/to cut percentages when a spike is detected (neutral info banner otherwise).
• Aligns cut-history calculations to use PERCENTAGE_PRECISION_MILLION and expands ignores for local tooling dirs (.playwright-mcp, .vscode) in eslint/prettier/git.

Reviewed changes

Copilot reviewed 5 out of 6 changed files in this pull request and generated 2 comments.

Show a summary per file

File	Description
hooks/useOrchestratorRewardCutSpike.tsx	Adds spike-detection heuristic and hook backed by useTranscoderUpdateEventsQuery.
hooks/useOrchestratorCutHistory.tsx	Refactors input typing and replaces hardcoded 1_000_000 with PERCENTAGE_PRECISION_MILLION.
components/DelegatingWidget/Delegate.tsx	Replaces the static cut notice with a spike-aware warning banner.
eslint.config.mjs	Ignores .playwright-mcp/** and .vscode/** in ESLint.
.prettierignore	Ignores .playwright-mcp.
.gitignore	Ignores .playwright-mcp/.

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[coderabbitai]

📝 Walkthrough

Walkthrough

This PR adds spike detection for orchestrator reward-cut changes. When a reward cut rises ≥50 percentage points within a rolling 7-day window in the last 180 days, a yellow warning replaces the neutral delegation banner. The implementation refactors the cut history hook for flexibility, introduces spike detection logic, and integrates it into the UI. Development tooling ignores are also added.

Changes

Reward Cut Spike Warning

Layer / File(s)	Summary
Spike detection algorithm and hook hooks/useOrchestratorRewardCutSpike.tsx	Defines REWARD_CUT_SPIKE_PP (50pp), ROLLING_WINDOW_DAYS (7), WARNING_WINDOW_DAYS (180) constants and types CutEvent and RewardCutSpike. The findRecentRewardCutSpike function scans events newest-to-oldest to find the most recent up-only spike by comparing each candidate's reward cut against the rolling-window minimum. The hook useOrchestratorRewardCutSpike queries orchestrator update events and memoizes spike detection.
Cut history hook flexibility hooks/useOrchestratorCutHistory.tsx	Input parameter type changes from Transcoder to OrchestratorRef to accept partial delegator fragments. New export type UseOrchestratorCutHistoryReturn documents the return shape. Percentage normalization updated to use shared PERCENTAGE_PRECISION_MILLION constant for subgraph events and activation anchors.
Delegation warning UI integration components/DelegatingWidget/Delegate.tsx	New CutChangeNotice component replaces the static inlined banner, conditionally rendering a yellow warning with spike details (relative date, before/after percentages, icons) or a neutral info banner. The component is integrated into Delegate for non-transcoders.

Development Tooling Configuration

Layer / File(s)	Summary
Playwright MCP tool ignores .gitignore, .prettierignore, eslint.config.mjs	Adds .playwright-mcp/ directory to Git and Prettier ignore rules, and .playwright-mcp/** to ESLint global ignores to prevent tooling interference with development artifacts.

🎯 3 (Moderate) | ⏱️ ~25 minutes

🚥 Pre-merge checks | ✅ 5

✅ Passed checks (5 passed)

Check name	Status	Explanation
Title check	✅ Passed	The title clearly and concisely summarizes the primary change: a new warning feature for delegators when an orchestrator's reward cut increases sharply.
Linked Issues check	✅ Passed	The PR successfully implements all core objectives from #681: reward-cut spike detection heuristic (≥50pp within 7-day rolling window over 180 days), yellow warning banner with dynamic copy, Apollo cache reuse, and no self-delegation warnings.
Out of Scope Changes check	✅ Passed	All code changes are scoped to the linked objective: hook implementations, component refactoring, configuration updates (.gitignore, .prettierignore, eslint.config), and hook refactoring for flexibility. No unrelated changes detected.
Docstring Coverage	✅ Passed	Docstring coverage is 100.00% which is sufficient. The required threshold is 80.00%.
Description check	✅ Passed	The pull request description is comprehensive and follows the template structure. It includes a clear summary of changes, visual evidence, a detailed test plan with manual verification on 14 orchestrators, and acknowledges known limitations.

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✨ Finishing Touches

📝 Generate docstrings

• Create stacked PR
• Commit on current branch

🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)

• Create PR with unit tests
• Commit unit tests in branch feat/bait-and-switch-warning

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[coderabbitai]

Actionable comments posted: 1

🤖 Prompt for all review comments with AI agents

Verify each finding against current code. Fix only still-valid issues, skip the
rest with a brief reason, keep changes minimal, and validate.

Inline comments:
In `@hooks/useOrchestratorRewardCutSpike.tsx`:
- Around line 88-94: The query in useTranscoderUpdateEventsQuery is fetching the
oldest 1000 updates because it sets first: 1000 and orderDirection:
OrderDirection.Asc, which can omit the last 180 days; change the pagination to
fetch newest-first by setting orderDirection to OrderDirection.Desc (keep
orderBy: TranscoderUpdateEvent_OrderBy.Timestamp and first as needed) and/or add
a server-side time filter to the variables.where (e.g., include a timestamp
cutoff condition) so findRecentRewardCutSpike always receives events from the
most recent 180-day window.

🪄 Autofix (Beta)

Fix all unresolved CodeRabbit comments on this PR:

• Push a commit to this branch (recommended)
• Create a new PR with the fixes

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ℹ️ Review info

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: Path: .coderabbit.yaml

Review profile: ASSERTIVE

Plan: Pro

Run ID: 3f5f448b-6ddc-4ee5-b16f-fba6721d4cec

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 9959381 and 787ba64.

📒 Files selected for processing (6)

• .gitignore
• .prettierignore
• components/DelegatingWidget/Delegate.tsx
• eslint.config.mjs
• hooks/useOrchestratorCutHistory.tsx
• hooks/useOrchestratorRewardCutSpike.tsx